Guacamole will definitely cost extra. The U.S. has just temporarily banned avocado imports from Mexico, the largest avocado exporter in the world, and it could seriously impact Mexican-inspired fast food chains like Chipotle and Taco Bell that rely on the green fruit.
On Feb. 11, the U.S. Department of Agriculture halted all imports of Mexican avocados until further notice. The shutdown comes after a U.S. plant safety inspector working at an avocado facility received a “threatening” phone call on their work phone, according to a press statement from the Mexican government. The U.S. has not contested that statement.
Mexican avocados make up for 80% of all American avocado consumption, according to Bloomberg. The specific avocado processing plant where the U.S. inspector was working is located in the state of Michoacán, which is the only Mexican state approved for avocado exports, according to the Los Angeles Times. This halt on avocados comes at a time when our global food system remains under threat from supply chain issues, labor shortages, and rising prices. News outlets speculate the threat made may be affiliated with drug cartels, an issue that has plagued many Mexican farms in recent years.
“We are talking about huge industries that are feeding tens of thousands of law-abiding working families,” said Falko Ernst to the Los Angeles Times, a senior analyst for Mexico with the International Crisis Group. “You might cause a backlash by inadvertently harming these populations’ livelihoods.”
The avocado ban could drastically affect the lives of thousands of Mexican avocado workers and generate a huge surplus of the fruit that will have nowhere to go. According to the Mexican Department of Agriculture, growers out of Michoacán exported 135 thousand tons of avocados in the past six weeks.
While the ban on Mexican avocados was made on the eve of the Super Bowl, there has been no noticeable shortage in the beloved green fruit in the U.S. yet. Avocados that were inspected on the day of the ban are currently being pushed through the border for sale in the U.S., but will soon run out, according to Reuters. Grocery stores and chain restaurants like Chipotle are not likely to see an immediate shortage due to a built-up supply. Chief financial officer of Chipotle, Jack Hartung, stated to Bloomberg that there are “several weeks” of inventory available for their restaurants. None of the guacamole serving food chains — Taco Bell, Subway, or Chipotle — have immediately responded to Spoon University’s request for comment.
In the meantime, fast food chains like Taco Bell, Subway, and Chipotle that regularly serve guacamole might have to look into alternative avocado suppliers. While 80% of the avocados we consume are Mexican, about 10% of avocados are domestically produced in Californian farms. None of the fast food chains have made public statements, but would most likely begin sourcing locally and raising prices.