Since the beginning of 2025, it seems grocery prices are ever on the rise. From coffee to avocados to shrimp, things are more expensive now. But how will tariffs impact grocery store prices?
Around 16% of the U.S. food supply is imported, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. This may not seem like a lot, but certain foods popular among American consumers are produced almost entirely abroad. These products will see a rise in prices in the coming months.
Currently, the Trump administration has implemented a 10% flat tariff on all imported goods. On April 9, the administration paused all reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, but seemingly intends to go forward with them later. A reciprocal tariff is a specific rate placed on a country in addition to the flat rate of 10%. For example, the proposed reciprocal tariffs include a 46% rate on Vietnam, a 26% rate on India, a 20% rate on the European Union, and a 10% rate on most Latin American countries. Also on April 9, Trump announced that tariffs on China will be held at 125%, making China the only country currently facing tariffs other than the flat rate of 10%.
Economists expect that the cost of tariffs will be passed onto consumers. This means that as it becomes more expensive for corporations, such as supermarkets, to obtain their products from overseas, they will increase their prices to cover the cost of tariffs. Food industry analyst Phil Lempert told NPR that the Trump administration tariffs will likely impact about half of the products sold in supermarkets. But which ones?
What foods will be most impacted by tariffs?
Tropical Fruit
Most tropical fruit eaten in the US, including bananas, avocados, pineapples, coconuts, and mangoes, is imported. Much of this fruit is grown in Latin America, with Costa Rica, Guatemala, and Peru as some of the main exporters. However, Mexico and Canada, the two largest exporters of produce to the U.S., are currently exempt from the 10% flat tariff on produce specifically. Production of tropical fruits cannot easily be domesticated because the U.S. does not have the climate for it, so prices for produce will likely be on the rise.
Coffee
The U.S. is the world’s largest importer of coffee. According to USA Facts, we import 99% of our coffee, with Brazil and Colombia as the biggest suppliers, both of which have a proposed reciprocal tariff of 10%. Sixty-three percent of adult Americans drink coffee every day.
Seafood
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that the U.S. imports up to 85% of its seafood, making this one of the hardest-hit products with regards to tariffs. Much of the fish we eat comes from Chile, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, countries with reciprocal tariffs up to 46%. China also imports seafood to the U.S.. Shrimp will be hit especially hard, as most of the shrimp eaten in the U.S. is imported from Asia.
Alcohol
Much of the beer and wine consumed in the U.S. is imported from Europe. France, Italy, and Spain face a 20% reciprocal tariff and are the top providers of wine to the U.S.. The beer produced in Ireland and the Netherlands faces a 20% reciprocal tariff, while that produced in Canada and Mexico faces 25% tariffs. Tequila will also become more expensive, as it is mainly produced in Mexico.
Olive Oil
The US buys 98% of its olive oil in bulk from countries in the European Union, which face a reciprocal tariff of 20%. Most olive oil comes from Spain, Italy, and Greece. Similar tariffs will impact imports of balsamic vinegar. Salad lovers may be saddened by the news of increased prices for their favorite dressing ingredients.
Rice
Although the U.S. does produce rice in large quantities, one-third of the rice we consume is imported. Basmati rice from India faces a 26% reciprocal tariff, while jasmine rice from Thailand will be taxed at 36%.
Nuts
Vietnam is the top importer of cashews to the US, and has a reciprocal tariff rate of 46%. The US gets a substantial amount of its macadamia nuts from Australia, which faces a 10% reciprocal tariff. Nut imports from the Ivory Coast, Brazil, and Thailand will also be impacted.
Chocolate
Major chocolate companies in the U.S., such as Hershey, import their chocolate from nations in Africa and Latin America. The top source of cacao is the Ivory Coast, with a reciprocal tariff rate of 21%. Brazil follows closely behind.
What about food produced in the U.S.?
Domestically-produced food is not exempt from the impacts of the Trump administration’s policies. Prices will likely increase for many of these goods as well. This is because the input products needed to grow and sell food domestically often come from abroad.
The U.S. lacks a domestic supply of potash, a key ingredient in making fertilizer used to grow crops. Most of our fertilizer is imported from Canada. Additionally, the machinery and packaging products (like paper and aluminum) are largely produced abroad. Corporations that grow their crops within the U.S. will still be forced to raise prices to offset the increased cost of their input products.
Additionally, U.S. agriculture has been greatly impacted by Trump’s migration policies. According to the Economic Research Service, an estimated 40% of farmworkers in the U.S. are undocumented migrants. This is especially true in California, the state with the most agriculture. California produces much of the country’s fruit, including berries and grapes. The Trump administration’s mass deportations of undocumented migrants will likely lead to a labor shortage for U.S. farms. This will force agricultural corporations to increase wages for their laborers, making their products more expensive in the grocery store.
What can consumers do to save money?
Firstly, by purchasing in-season products and shopping locally, consumers can avoid buying goods produced abroad. Buy in bulk, search for coupons, and meal plan a week in advance to save on groceries. Consumers can also stock up on shelf-stable products now before prices rise. CNN reports already seeing a shift in consumer behavior, with consumers buying fewer non-essential foods like chips and sweets, and switching to grocery store brand products, which are usually cheaper.